EIA Raises 2025 Biodiesel Output, Renewable Diesel Use Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2025 biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Dec. 10. The agency also increased its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel consumption. 

The EIA currently expects biodiesel production to average 110,000 barrels per day this year, a forecast maintained from the November STEO. The agency has increased its forecast for 2025 biodiesel production to 110,000 barrels per day, up from last month’s outlook of 100,000 barrels per day. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day in 2023. 

Net imports of biodiesel are expected to average 10,000 barrels per day this year and zero barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the November STEO. Net imports of biodiesel averaged 20,000 barrels per day last year. 

Biodiesel consumption is currently expected to average 120,000 barrels per day this year and 10,000 barrels per day next year, unchanged from last month’s outlook. Biodiesel consumption averaged 130,000 barrels per day in 2023.

The EIA maintained its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 renewable diesel production at 210,000 barrels per day and 230,000 barrels per day, respectively. Renewable diesel production averaged 170,000 barrels per day in 2023. 

The agency also maintained its forecasts that net imports of renewable diesel would average 40,000 barrels per day this year and 20,000 barrels per day next year. Renewable diesel imports were at 20,000 barrels per day last year. 

Renewable diesel consumption is currently expected to average 240,000 barrels per day this year, an outlook maintained from the November STEO. The EIA, however, increased its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel consumption to 250,000 barrels per day, up from last month’s outlook of 240,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel consumption was at 190,000 barrels per day in 2023. 

The production of “other biofuels,” defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development, is expected to average 20,000 barrels per day this year and 40,000 barrels per day in 2025. Both forecasts were maintained from the November STEO. Production of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day last year. 

No net imports are expected for “other biofuels” in either 2024 or 2025. The EIA maintained its forecast that consumption of “other biofuels” would average 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, compared to 20,000 barrels per day in 2023.